Gartner：IT支出下滑甚于网络泡沫破灭期

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Gartner报告说，2009年全球IT开支预算将比前一年下滑近4%，业界观察家认为目前的衰退将会比2001年网络泡沫破灭后造成更大的损失。

Gartner全球预测研究副总裁Richard Gordon在周二举行的一个宣布开支预测研究结果的电话会议上说：“IT市场的下滑将会 比2001年更为严重，2001年的下滑主要与高科技有关。今天，人们普遍降低了对各类产品和服务的需求，IT支出当然也未能幸免。”

Gartner报告说，全球IT支出将会在2009年达到大约3.2万亿美元，相比2008年的3.3万亿美元，增长幅度下降了3.8%，而2008年比2007年增长了6.1%。该研究公司向下调整了各个行业的开支预测，并把开支削减归因于经济衰退。2001年的IT支出有2.1%的下降幅度。

Gordon说：“经济危机对IT支出的影响变得更加明晰。随着全球经济继续大幅度下降，IT部门正在削减预算，消费者也在削减开支。2009年第一季度证明了主要市场和供应商已经进入了衰退。”

特别是硬件市场，因为2009年对硬件进行投入的企业变少了，导致硬件市场有了近15%的下滑，预计2009年硬件市场支出为3243亿美元，而2008年的硬件支出是3810亿美元。软件支出将是持平，为2226亿美元。IT服务的支出将会下降1.7%，总支出达到7960亿美元。对于电信部门，Gartner预计将会有近3%的开支减少，总投资为1.9万亿美元。

Gordon解释说，尽管政府承诺会长期刺激IT市场，他们却无法弥补“暗淡的短期前景”。全球金融市场尚未稳定，这意味着IT买家没有足够的信心来投资他们的预算。

Gordon说：“经济状况继续侵蚀所有地区的企业的信心。市场依然存在着一般意义上的不确定性，因危机造成的有毒债务的实际数额也不明确。IT组织将会寻求新的方式，把支出从资本投资转移到提高运营效率上来。”

IT spending drop-off worse than after dot.com bust, Gartner reports

Global IT spending is expected to decline nearly 4% in 2009 over the previous year as industry watchers confirm the current recession will see more losses than the dot-com bust in 2001, Gartner reports.

"The IT market slowdown will be worse than 2001, that downturn was tech-related. Today there is a general slowdown in demand for products and services across the board and IT spending is not immune," said Richard Gordon, research vice president of global forecasting at Gartner, Tuesday on a conference call announcing the spending forecast.

Gartner reported that global IT spending will reach about $3.2 trillion in 2009, a 3.8% decline in growth from the $3.3 trillion spent in 2008 -- which marked a 6.1% growth over 2007. The research firm adjusted its spending forecast downward across all segments, attributing the cutback in spending to the economic recession. IT spending in 2001 saw a 2.1% decline, according to Gartner.

"The impact on IT spending is becoming clearer. As global economies continue to decline sharply, IT departments are trimming budgets and consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending," Gordon said. "The first quarter of 2009 provided confirmation that key markets and vendors have entered a recession."

Hardware in particular will see a nearly 15% decline as fewer companies invest in 2009 and are expected to spend $324.3 billion, compared with $381 billion spent on hardware in 2008. Software spending will be about flat at $222.6 billion. IT services will decline 1.7% with total spending reaching about $796 billion. As for the telecom sector, Gartner expects to see a nearly 3% decline in spending with total investments reaching $1.9 trillion.

Despite the promise of government stimulus packages in the long term, Gordon explained, they won’t be able to offset the "bleak near-term outlook." Global financial markets have yet to stabilize, and that means IT buyers aren’t confident on where to invest their budget dollars.

"Economic conditions have continued to erode business confidence in all regions. There is a continued general sense of uncertainty in the market and a lack of clarity of actual amount of toxic debt out there," Gordon said. "IT organizations will look for ways to shift spending from capital expenditures to operational efficiencies."   （网界网）